May 9, 2008 | Link This | Email this | Comments (0)

Some new nickel fundamentals: The International Nickel Study Group is forecasting primary nickel consumption to increase 13.1% this year to 1.47 million metric tons slowing the 7.1% decline in 2007…the group is also forecasting record production of 1.54 million tons, suggesting a 70,000 metric ton surplus – well above some analysts projections…Societe Générale, however, is less than bullish over the near term as they, too, see nickel in surplus along with London Metal Exchange (LME) cash prices trending towards $20,000/metric ton ($9.07/lb). Macquarie is forecasting nickel to average $13.53 this year. (Editor’s Note: So far this year, LME spot nickel is averaging $13.06, down from $16.87 in 2007.)
Industries: Metals, Price/Supply

May 5, 2008 | Link This | Email this | Comments (0)

As April ended, published sources such as World Steel Dynamics (WSD) have No.1 heavy metal scrap at $500/gross ton; shredded scrap at $557, and No.1 bushelings at $587, delivered to the mills. WSD’s prices are in line with others. AMM, meanwhile, is quoting September pig iron at $690/mt delivered to New Orleans; Iron Age has the current pig iron market @ $671 f.o.b. New Orleans.

And, next month? May buying for ferrous scrap is well underway (and) most in the trenches are anticipating higher numbers for both prime and obsolete grades, with bundles setting the upper range…published sources are reporting a potential increase of +$50 for bundles, and +$20 for old scrap. As we understand from our friends at Steel Business Briefing, the monthly Chrysler scrap auto bundles auction increased an additional $135/gross ton for May, pushing the new price for the prime gr...Read More

Industries: Metals, Price/Supply

April 18, 2008 | Link This | Email this | Comments (0)

This second quarter looks especially firm on pricing to Barclays Capital (and others)…as they see it, refined copper supply looks tight resulting in inventories returning to all-time lows and prices testing all-time highs…as an average for the second quarter, the firm is forecasting a $3.54/lb LME cash average…last week Citigroup upped its 2008 copper forecast average to $3.56...for 2009, they’re calling for a $3.50 average...

This bullish theme was also apparent at last week’s Copper Spotlight during the Institute of Scrap Recycling Industries’ convention in Las Vegas…speaker Patricia Mohr, Scotiabank Group, offered fundamental evidence that supported her $3.50 average for this year along with a potential for copper to surpass the $4.00 mark as hedge funds add to their respective long positions…speakers Marc Natan, Sa...Read More

April 4, 2008 | Link This | Email this | Comments (0)

Macro News...
The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing index increased to 48.6 in March from 48.3 in February...the consensus had expected a decline to 47.4…according to First Trust Advisors, the index signals “restrained growth, not recession.” ISM says an index level of 49.2, which was the Q1 average, is consistent with a real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate of 2.5%. First Trust is forecasting a 2% GDP growth for the first quarter…

Construction spending for February was also low but, again, better than expected…still, spending fell for the fifth straight month and was down 2.6% Jan-Feb ’08 vs. Jan-Feb ’07. Auto and truck sales for March were also a disappointment, as was February’s factory orders…

Last Friday’s anticipated non-farms payrolls report wa...Read More

March 31, 2008 | Link This | Email this | Comments (0)

Latest in nonferrous comes from the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS), which placed January’s global copper market in surplus by some 56,000 metric tons. Although that sounds bearish, most analysts have re-thought the global balance for 2008 and now a number see the market trending towards deficit for the year as a whole (for ‘07, global refined copper consumption exceeded production by 42,000 metric tons.)

Barclays Capital, for one, is forecasting a “substantial” shortfall in this first half of the year with London Metals Exchange (LME) cash prices again testing all-time highs…an ever widening backwardation is also lending support. Also, China’s appetite for the red metal is not showing convincing signs of slowing down anytime soon. February...Read More