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OUTLOOK '99
PRODUCT UPDATE
Product Update
PROFESSIONAL PROFILE
PURCHASING HOTLINE - Reward good salespeople!
- Check out the results of Purchasing's
- Expect steelmakers to file anti-import cases against more countries
- Has a shakeout started among providers of "supply chain management" software?
- Look out for coming EPA proposal to cut fuel emissions in new cars, trucks, and minivans
- Temporary-help agencies will keep raising their fees
- When is a price cut not a price cut? When suppliers' costs fall faster than their prices
- Electronic buyers can plan on excess semiconductor capacity drying up by mid-year
- Keep an eye on dispute between U.S. and Canada over magazine publishing that could affect imports of steel, wood, and textiles
- Are your suppliers really world-class?
- Expect federal government to pay more attention to employers with federal contracts
- Petrochemical prices will continue to fall slightly through most of this year
- Expect fast and less costly Internet connections
- Think your software is Y2K compliant? Don't be too sure
- Shippers should keep an eye on U.S. Postal Service reform bill that could lower rates
- Discount any talk of big increases in insurance rates this year
- Expect worldwide power-supply market to double over next five years
- TRANSACTION PRICES
- Need help in keeping up with environmental compliance for chemicals?
- Get up to speed on the Internet
- Keep an eye on osha
ECONOMY - The opinion pendulum appears to be swinging back in the direction of economic optimism
Economy - After a respite in late 1998, some "hawkish" Fed officials have started to talk up inflation again
- U.S. import price index fell seven-tenths of a percent in December
- As a share of disposable personal income, consumer debt ran at around 7.9% in 1998
- Industrial production growth fell in 1998 to its lowest rate in five years
- Fed's latest Beige Book roundup of regional economic conditions shows generally buoyant business conditions
Markets - U.S. business trade on the Internet will explode from $43 billion in 1998 to $1.3 trillion in 2003
- Cooler weather patterns this year should bring U.S. natural-gas consumption to a record
- Housing construction will slide 5.6% to 1.52 million units this year
- Sales of farm tractors and self-propelled combines rose 7.9%
- LG Semicon has agreed to a takeover by rival Hyundai Group
- GenCorp plans to split into two public companies
- Airline ticket bookings on the Internet will grow to 8%
- Justice will block Formica Corp.'s acquisition of International Paper's high-pressure laminate business
- Willamette Industries is exiting the one-side coated paper business
- The number of cellular phone subscribers worldwide is expected to soar
- Around 24 million portable telephones were purchased in the U.S. last year
- Global memory chip sales skidded 12% to $123 billion last year
- Nine automaking companies have organized the Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers in Washington
- Based on explosive growth in 1998 (to 492,000 units from 214,000 units
- Intel has launched two Celeron-brand microprocessors
- Mincorp, a new management-led firm, has purchased soda ash and boron chemicals units from IMC Global
- U.S. industry will boost research and development spending by 6.8% this year to $236 billion in 1999
Prices - Annual average London Metal Exchange prices for aluminum, copper, lead, nickel, and tin will all be lower in 1999
- Spot prices for sheet steel slipped in January
- Expect benchmark Brent crude oil to average $13.50/barrel in 1999
- Spot prices for polystyrene plunged 24% last year
- Gaylord Container has proposed a $50/ton price increase
- Die-cast grade A380 scrap aluminum has risen slightly
- Analysts with Gold Fields Mineral Services expect gold prices to remain in a range of $270-$310/troy ounce
- With imported carbon steel plate (grade A36) from South Korea, Indonesia, and Hungary being quoted as low as $320/ton
- World copper demand will grow 1.9% in 1999
- With mill inventories declining and significant capacity shutdowns planned for 1999
- Allegheny Ludlum, Armco, and J&L Specialty Steel are raising selling prices
- Buyers can expect higher prices for the U308 uranium
- Benchmark-grade northern bleached softwood kraft (nbsk) wood pulp isn't going anywhere soon
- Georgia-Pacific, the No. 2 U.S. paper company, has announced a price increase in the range of $60/ton
- Standard 30-lb newsprint remains at $590/metric ton across the country
- United Parcel Service boosted rates this month
- Sales tags for hot- and cold-rolled mechanical tube have slipped dramatically
- Plentiful supplies and competition from cheap natural gas and Western coal fields will keep Appalachian coal below $30/ton
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